Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad social a los peligros naturales en Nova Friburgo, Región Montañosa de Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Claudia Paola Cardozo, Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro


DOI: https://doi.org/10.55467/reder.v3i2.33

Resumen


Brasil enfrenta un escenario complejo de peligros naturales, como resultado directo de su tamaño, diversidad y heterogeneidad tanto social como natural. En 2011, se produjeron deslizamientos masivos provocados por lluvias extremas que causaron el denominado “Megadesastre” en la región montañosa de Rio de Janeiro. Este trabajo describe el desarrollo de un Índice de Vulnerabilidad Social a nivel de distrito censal, utilizando el método SoVI. También examina el valor potencial del índice para explicar el impacto de los deslizamientos de 2011 en la población de Nova Friburgo. El Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) revela que seis factores explican el 73.6% de la varianza de los datos. El análisis de patrones espaciales sugiere que aproximadamente el 84% del área es clasificada con nivel moderado de vulnerabilidad social. Los valores más altos se registran donde la densidad de población es alta y además se desarrollan las principales actividades económicas. El conocimiento resultante proporciona a la comunidad local, al gobierno y a las organizaciones civiles una base para comprender la geografía y los impulsores de la vulnerabilidad social, que pueden aprovecharse para lograr una preparación y respuesta efectivas para enfrentar futuros peligros naturales y también para promover sociedades resilientes a los desastres.

Palabras clave


Vulnerabilidad Social, Peligros Naturales, Análisis de Componentes Principales, Brasil

Texto completo:

PDF

Referencias


Anazawa, T., Feitosa, F. & Monteiro, A. (2013). Vulnerabilidade socioecológica no litoral norte de São Paulo: medidas, superfícies e perfis de ativos. Revista Geografia, 38(1), 189-208.

Anselin, L. (1995). Local Indicators of Spatial Association - LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93-115. Ashley, S.T. & Ashley, W. S. (2008). Flood fatalities in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 805-818.

Avelar, A.S., Coelho Netto, A.L., Lacerda, W.A., Becker, L.B. & Mendonça, M.B. (2011). Mechanisms of the recent catastrophic landslides in the mountainous range of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In II World Landslide Forum. Rome: WLF.

Birkmann, J. (2006). Indicators and criteria for measuring vulnerability: theoretical basis and requirements. In Birkmann, J. (Ed.) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards towards disaster resilient societies. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.

Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. & Wisner, B. (1994). At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. London: Routledge.

Bogardi, J. & Birkmann, J. (2004). Vulnerability assessment: The first step towards Sustainable Risk Reduction. In Malzahn, D. & Plapp, T (Eds). Disaster and Society: from Hazard assessment to Risk reduction. Berlin: Logos Verlag Berlin, pp. 75-82.

Bohle, H.G. (2001). Vulnerability and Criticality: Perspectives from Social Geography. Newsletter of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, 2, 1-7.

Busch, A. & Amorim, S. (2011). A tragédia da Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro em 2011: procurando respostas. ENAP-Casoteca de Gestão Pública, 328(1), 1-20.

Camarinha, P.I., Canavasi, V. & Alvalá, S. (2014). Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2449-2468.

Campante, F.R., Crespo, A.R. & Leite, G.P. (2004). Desigualdade salarial entre raças no mercado de trabalho urbano brasileiro: aspectos regionais. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 58(2), 185-210.

Cardona, O.D. (1999). Environmental management and disaster prevention: two related topics: a holistic risk assessment and management approach. In Ingleton, J. (Ed.) Natural Disaster Management. London: Tudor Rose.

Cardozo, C.P., Monteiro, A.M.V., Freitas, C.M. & Lopes, E. S. (2017). Intra- urban differentials in the exposition and vulnerability to landslides: the Human Fatalities in the 2011 Nova Friburgo - RJ disaster. In the Camaden (Ed.) First Brazilian Workshop on Assessment of Hazards, Vulnerability, Exposure and Disaster Risk Reduction. São José dos Campos: Cemaden.

Cardozo, C.P., Lopes, E. S. & Monteiro, A.M.V. (2018). Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment using SINMAP in Nova Friburgo (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). Revista Brasileira de Cartografia, 70(4), 1206-1230.

Carmo, R. L., Dagnino, R.S. & Johansen, I. C. (2014). Transição demográfica e transição do consumo urbano de água no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, 31(1), 169-190.

Castilho, L.V., Oliveira, P. & Fabriani, E.C. (2012). Análise de uma tragédia ambiental e a participação da população no equacionamento dos problemas de moradia: um estudo de caso da tragédia na Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro. In VI National ANPASS Meeting. Belem: Universidade de Para.

Cerny, C.A. & Kaiser, H.F. (1977). A study of a measure of sampling adequacy for factor-analytic correlation matrices. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 12(1), 43-47.

Chambers, R. (1989). Vulnerability: How the poor cope. IDS Bulletin, 20(2), 1-7.

Coelho Netto, A. L., Sato, A. M., Avelar, A. S., Vianna, L. G., Araújo, I. S., Ferreira, D. L., Lima, P.H., Silva, A. P. & Silva, R. (2011). January 2001: The extreme landslide disaster in Brazil. In II World Landslide Forum. Rome: WLF.

Costa, M.A. & Marguti B. (Eds.). (2015). Atlas da Vulnerabilidade Social nos municípios brasileiros. Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada IPEA. Brasilia: IPEA.

Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. & Shirley, W.L. (2003). Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly, 84(2), 242-261.

Cutter S. L. & Finch, C. (2008). Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(7), 2301-2306.

Cutter, S.L. & Morath, D.P. (2013). The evolution of the Social Vulnerability Index. In Birkmann, J. (Ed.). Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards. Bonn: United Nations University Press, pp. 304-321.

Presidência da República, Brasil. (2003). Elderly Statute. Law N° 10.741. Presidência da República [web]. Available in: http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/leis/2003/L10.741.htm [Accessed 25 Jun 2017].

Ferreira, G.S. (2016). Expansão da população asiática no Brasil e no Rio Grande do Sul (2000–2010). Boletim Geográfico do Rio Grande do Sul, 28, 124-139.

Freitas, C.M., Carvalho, M.L., Ximenes, E.F., Arraes, E. & Gomes, J.O. (2012). Vulnerabilidade socioambiental, redução de riscos de desastres e construção da resiliência – lições do terremoto no Haiti e das chuvas fortes na Região Serrana, Brasil. Revista Ciência e Saúde Coletiva, 17(6), 1577-1586.

Fuchs, S. (2009). Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria - paradigms of vulnerability revisited. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 9, 337-352.

Gautam, D. (2017). Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 17, 2313-2320.

Gonçalves, A.J. (2001). Migrações Internas: evoluções e desafios. Estudos Avançados, 15(43), 173-184.

Hummell, B.M., Cutter, S.L. & Emrich, C.T. (2016). Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Brazil. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 7, 111-122.

Brazilian Institute of Geography & Statistics IBGE. (2010). 2010 Census. IBGE [web]. Available in:

www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/censo2010/default.shtm" target="_blank">http://

www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/censo2010/default.shtm [Accessed 10 Mar. 2016].

Brazilian Institute of Geography & Statistics IBGE. (2011). Press room November 19, 2011. Available in: http://saladeimprensa.ibge.gov.br/en/notic... [Accessed 11 Aug 2017].

Kaiser, H. (1958). The Varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis. Psychometrika, 23, 187-200.

Menoni, S., Molinari, D., Parker, D., Ballio, F. & Tapsell, S. (2012). Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies. Natural Hazards, 64(3), 2057-2082.

Moran, P. (1948). The interpretation of statistical maps. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B-Methodological, 10, 243-251.

Nathan, F. (2005). Vulnerabilities to natural hazard: Case study on landslide risk in La Paz. In Proceedings of the World International Studies Conference. Istambul: Bilgi University.

Nery, T.D. & Vieira, B.C. (2014). Susceptibility to shallow landslides in a drainage basin in the Serra do Mar, São Paulo, Brazil, predicted using the SINMAP mathematical model. Bulletin of Engineering Geology Environment, 74(2), 369-378.

Parker, D. & Tapsell, S. (2009). Relations between different types of social and economic vulnerability. EU Project “Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards” (ENSURE). Final Report.

Rigout, F., Martin, C., Simioni, A.P., Martinho, J., Zackiewicz, M. & Mansour, V. (2015). Diagnóstico municipal: Trabalho infantil em Nova Friburgo. São Paulo: Technical Report.

Departamento de Recursos Minerais - Rio de Janeiro DRM-RJ. (2015). Cartografia geotécnica de aptidão urbana Nova Friburgo. Escala 1:10.000. Rio de Janeiro: Geological Survey of the State of Rio de Janeiro Report.

Roberts N.J., Nadim, F. & Kalsnes, B. (2007). Quantification of vulnerability to natural hazards. In ISGSR2007. First International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk. Shangai: Tongji University.

Roncancio, D.J. & Nardocci, A.C. (2016). Social vulnerability to natural hazards in São Paulo, Brazil. Natural Hazards, 84, 1367-1383.

Sharif, H., Jackson, T., Hossain, M. & Zane, D. (2015). Analysis of flood fatalities in Texas. Natural Hazards Review, 16(1), 1-8.

Snedecor, G.W. & Cochran, W.G. (1989). Statistical methods. Iowa State University Press: Ames.

Tapsell, S., McCarthy, S., Faulkner, H. & Alexander, M. (2010). Social vulnerability and natural hazards. London: Middlesex University Press.

Turner, B.L., Kasperson, R.E., Matson, P.A., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luerse, A., Martello, M.L., Polsky, C., Pulsiph, A. & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 100(14), 8074-8079.

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR. (2015). Sendai Framework for Action 2015–2030. Geneva: UNISDR.

Van Westen, C.J. (2000). Remote sensing for natural disaster management. International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 33(7), 1609-1617.

Van Westen, C.J., Alkema, D., Damen, M.C., Kerle, N. & Kingma, N.C. (2011). Multi-hazard risk assessment. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.

Van Westen, C.J. (2013). Remote sensing and GIS for natural hazards assessment and disaster risk management. Treatise on Geomorphology, 3, 259-298.

Vassoler, R. (2013). Ações da vigilância epidemiológica nos desastres naturais. Experiência na Região Serrana em 2011. Technical Report.

Willis, I., & Fitton, J. (2016). A review of multivariate social vulnerability methodologies: A case study of the River Parrett catchment, UK. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 16, 1387-1399.

Wisner, B. (2016). Vulnerability as concept, model, metric and tool. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. New York: Oxford University Press.

Wisner, B., Blaikie, P.M., Cannon, T. & Davis, I. (2004). At risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. London and New York: Routledge.

World Bank. (2000). Infrastructure and poverty. New York: World Bank.

World Bank. (2012). Avaliação de perdas e danos: inundações e deslizamentos na Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro. New York: World Bank Technical Report.


Enlaces refback

  • No hay ningún enlace refback.